具C-D函数的拉姆齐模型分析

本文给出了具 C- D函数的拉姆齐模型dkdt=Akα- c/ l - nkdcdt=σ(Aαkα-1-θ - n) c(R)并对该系统的性态作了数学分析且给出其经济意义 .     

检索CAS化学物质数据库的必要性和方法

以ＤＩＡＬＯＧ系统为例,讨论了检索ＣＡＳ化学物质数据库的必要性和方法。     

GM(1,N)与GM(0,N)模型在能源消费碳排放预测中的比较研究

近年来,减少碳排放已成为缔约国家社会经济发展和生产经营活动的重要目标之一,研究并使用科学的方法对我国未来碳排放进行分析与预测对我国应对气候变化政策的制定具有重要意义.拟将GM(1,N)和GM(0,N)模型用于能源消费碳排放量的预测,建立能源消费碳排放量的多因素灰色预测模型,并对GM(1,N)和GM(0,N)模型预测能源消费碳排放量的精度进行了检验和对比分析.结果表明:在对四川省能源消费碳排放预测中,GM(0,N)具有更高的预测精度和可靠性.     

西藏林芝地区城镇居民消费支出的G(1,1)模型预测及其影响因素的关联度分析

利用2006—2012年林芝地区城镇居民人均生活消费支出数据为研究对象,应用灰色系统理论建立了林芝地区城镇居民消费的G(1,1)预测模型,对其未来几年的人均生活消费进行预测,分析得出:在未来五年中林芝地区城镇居民人均生活消费支出呈现攀升的态势,平均年增长率预计达到7.93%.并运用灰色关联分析方法对影响林芝地区城镇居民消费支出的主要因素进行系统分析,确定了各因素相对于消费支出的关联程度.     

基于主成分-集对分析法的联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案评估模型研究

陆军作为联合火力打击的重要组成部分,具有反应快、火力猛、精度高、机动灵活的特点,是实施联合火力打击不可缺少的重要力量.陆军在联合火力打击中,如何快速准确的从多种弹药预测方案中分析、评估优选出最佳的陆军弹药消耗预测方案,对提高陆军快速反应能力,提升部队战斗力,打赢未来战争至关重要.为此,在分析影响联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗主要因素的基础上,构建了符合联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗特点的评估指标体系,提出了一种基于主成分和集对分析法综合分析的联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案的评估优选方法,通过方法可求得指标权重,最终评估优选出最佳的联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案.结合实例分析,验证构建的评估模型能够用于多种联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案的评估优选,为进一步提高联合火力打击陆军弹药消耗预测方案提供技术指导.     

广西能源、环境和经济增长的动态关系研究——基于VAR模型的实证分析

利用广西1990-2011年GDP、能源消费和工业废气排放总量的数据,应用基于VAR模型的动态计量分析方法,对广西经济、能源和环境的关系进行实证研究.结果表明:三者之间存在长期稳定的协整关系,能源消耗是经济增长和环境污染的Granger原因,经济增长是能源消耗和环境污染的Granger原因.能源消耗对经济增长的正向影响效应时间较长且较稳定,环境污染初期对经济增长的抑制作用较弱却呈现缓慢增强的趋势;而经济增长对能源消耗和环境污染的影响持续时间较短.经济增长与能源消耗两者之间的相互影响较大,而环境污染受能源消耗变化影响较明显.     

How Do Cultural Classes Emerge from Assimilation and Distinction? An Extension of the Cucker-Smale Flocking Model

When cultural tastes are not neutral but hierarchically matched to social status, people assimilate themselves to higher status by consuming cultural goods while distinguishing themselves from lower status by developing new tastes. Extending the Cucker-Smale model for mutual influence among agents, we examine when and how many cultural classes emerge from continuous distributions of tastes and what conditions those classes satisfy, through the assimilation-distinction mechanism. We simulate the models with different initial distributions of tastes (uniform, normal, and chi-square), given various ranges of 2 parameters: (a) the strength and (b) the range of distinction relative to assimilation. Tastes are flocking and cultural classes emerge when the range of assimilation is much larger than that of distinction. The number of classes increases with the strength of distinction, whereas the distance between classes equals the range of distinction. Some properties of emergent classes are mathematically proved. First, in a two-class system, the stronger distinction, the larger the upper class. Second, in a three-class system, the middle class is necessarily larger than the lower class and likely larger than the upper class. Third, a 3-class system cannot emerge if distinction is weaker than assimilation. These properties are universal and do not depend on the initial distribution of cultural tastes. This independence predicts homogeneous cultural classes emerging across different social conditions. Also, the cultural middle class as the largest group may explain why subjective class consciousness is often higher than objective position. Unless assimilating efforts can reach an infinite range, there emerges a cultural outcast at the lowest end of the cultural hierarchy.     

数值地震预测的关键物理问题*

数值地震预测是地震物理研究中的一个重要课题,具有基础性的科学意义和潜在的应用价值.文章介绍了数值地震预测的三个关键物理问题——地震发生率与应力变化的关系、地震断层的摩擦函数、地球中应力的传递问题,讨论了这些问题的意义、研究现状和发展趋势.     

Periodic-Review Inventory Model with Three Consecutive Delivery Modes and Forecast Updates

This paper is concerned with a periodic-review inventory system with three consecutive delivery modes (fast, medium, and slow) and demand forecast updates. At the beginning of each period, the inventory level and demand information are updated and decisions on how much to order using each of the three delivery modes are made. It is shown that there is a base-stock policy for fast and medium modes which is optimal. Furthermore, the optimal policy for the slow mode may not be a base-stock policy in general.This research was supported in part by a Faculty Research Grant from the University of Texas at Dallas, a RGC (Hong Kong) Competitive Earmarked Research Grant, a Distinguished Young Investigator Grant from the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, and a Grant from the Hundred Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

利用数值进制的方法快速预测事件发生的模型及其应用

通过对影响事件发生的因素的分析,提出了因素数字化的简单方法,利用数值进制的方法建立了因素与事件发生的快速预测模型,可以在社会各个领域得到广泛的应用.